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The Blair Black Hole in global climate policy

Global climate targets are harder and costlier without international trade in energy-intensive goods – a normal feature of the fossil carbon economy.

Ross Garnaut

Director

An early version of this paper was delivered as a public lecture to the Oxford Martin School on Monday 16 June 2025.


Abstract

Slow progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions has led to comments that achievement of global climate change mitigation goals is unlikely, because it is too costly and difficult. It would be less costly and difficult if international trade in energy-intensive goods were a normal feature of the zero-carbon economy, as it has been in the fossil carbon economy. This is difficult when the US under President Trump has withdrawn from international cooperation on trade and climate change. Other countries remaining open and cooperative facilitates re-entry of the US into the global system and continued progress on agreed climate goals.

Ross Garnaut

Director

Ross Garnaut AC is a renowned economist specialising in development, economic policy and international relations. He is Professor Emeritus at the University of Melbourne and a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Sciences. His contributions to trade policy and climate change have made him a trusted adviser to successive Australian governments.